El Niño 2026/27 is increasingly becoming a serious issue for Peru. The current assessment by relevant experts has significantly intensified. For the coast of Peru, there is now a high probability of an exceptionally strong El Niño Costero. People in Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque must pay particular attention to the development.
The Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, or ENFEN for short, maintains its "El Niño Costero Alert." In its latest official communiqué dated August 28, 2026, experts assess the further development much more critically than at the beginning of the Peruvian winter. For the Niño 1+2 region off the coast of Peru, there is at least a 62 percent probability for an event of the "extraordinario" – extraordinary category for the period from September 2026 to January 2027.
This brings into focus a scenario that could have significant impacts, especially for northern Peru.
El Niño forecast has intensified
The development of recent months has been remarkable. In mid-June, experts still predominantly expected a moderate to strong event for the summer of 2026/27. Meanwhile, the picture has changed, and the extraordinary scenario has significantly gained in probability.
For February and March 2027, ENFEN continues to expect conditions between strong and extraordinary. Only later in 2027 is the situation expected to gradually normalize. This is not just about the temperature of the Pacific. Crucial for the population is how the unusually warm sea affects the atmosphere, rainfall, and rivers.
Especially on the north coast, this combination can become problematic.
Northern Peru is particularly in focus
Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque are among the regions where further developments are being closely monitored. Already between September and November, above-average temperatures are expected on the Peruvian coast. Above-normal rainfall is also possible in the north.
The much more critical phase is likely to begin during the Peruvian summer from January to March 2027. During this period, ENFEN expects above-average rainfall on the north and central coast as well as in the northwestern highlands.
In the event of an exceptionally strong El Niño Costero, this rainfall can have significant consequences. For northern Peru, the risk of floods, high river levels, and the activation of normally dry quebradas increases. Landslides and disruptions of important road connections are also possible.
This explicitly does not mean that such events will occur everywhere. The current forecasts describe risks and probabilities. How severely individual locations will actually be affected depends on the further development of the Pacific and the regional distribution of rainfall.
Piura and Tumbes prepare
For northern Peru, El Niño is not an abstract weather phenomenon. The region has experienced in the past what consequences exceptional rainfall can have for cities, agriculture, and traffic. Correspondingly important are the current preparations.
The Peruvian water authority ANA is working, among other things, on cleaning and desilting critical river sections. In total, the measures affect 75 critical points in Piura, Tumbes, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Ancash, and Lima. Rivers and drainage areas should thus be able to accommodate larger amounts of water.
Such measures can reduce risks but cannot fully compensate for exceptionally large amounts of rainfall. In the coming months, therefore, it will be crucial how far regional and local authorities advance their preparations before the main rainy season begins.
Warm sea already changing conditions
The effects of an El Niño Costero do not begin only with heavy rain. The starting point is the changes in the Pacific. Unusually warm water off the Peruvian coast influences weather and marine ecology and can thus also have consequences for fishing.
SENAMHI and other authorities have been observing unusual temperature developments for a long time. Piura has also experienced unusually warm conditions. At the same time, rainfall was recorded outside the typical rainy season in parts of Tumbes and the highlands of Piura.
Changes in sea temperature can also lead to fish species shifting. For fishing, this can result in both economic problems and temporarily new fishing opportunities. How strong these effects will be depends on the further development of sea temperatures.
What does El Niño mean for travelers?
Anyone planning a trip to northern Peru in the coming months does not currently have to cancel their trip due to the forecast. For September or October, there is no reason to generally advise against travel to Piura or Tumbes.
More attention is required during the rainy season. From December, and especially between January and March, travelers should regularly check weather conditions, regional warnings, and road conditions. In case of heavy rainfall, roads can become impassable at short notice and bus connections can be canceled or significantly delayed.
Special caution is required when driving on mountain roads and in more remote areas. Even on the coast, floods can temporarily affect important transport links.
Agriculture also affected
Northern Peru is one of the most important agricultural regions in the country. Piura produces, among other things, mangoes, limes, bananas, grapes, and rice. Heavy rainfall can therefore have economic consequences far beyond the immediately affected areas.
More water does not automatically mean better conditions for agriculture. Prolonged rain can flood fields, damage plants, and disrupt transport routes. At the same time, unusually high temperatures can affect growth cycles and yields.
Which crops will be particularly affected cannot yet be reliably assessed. For farmers and exporters, therefore, the development of rainfall and the forecasts for the coming months are becoming increasingly important.
Forecast does not yet mean disaster
When reports about a potentially extraordinary El Niño event are made, a clear classification is important. Peru is currently not in a nationwide El Niño disaster.
ENFEN publishes a scientific forecast. It shows a significantly increased probability of an extraordinary event and the associated risks. However, there is an important difference between such a forecast and actually occurring severe floods.
Precisely for this reason, the coming months are crucial. Authorities can use the remaining time to prepare rivers, drainage systems, roads, and particularly vulnerable areas for possible heavy rainfall events.
Next ENFEN report on September 14
Developments in the Pacific are continuously monitored. The next official ENFEN communiqué is announced for September 14, 2026. It will then become clear whether the probability of an extraordinary El Niño Costero continues to rise, remains stable, or decreases again.
PeruMagazin will continue to follow developments, especially for Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, and the rest of northern Peru.
Frequently asked questions about El Niño 2026/27
Is there currently an El Niño Costero in Peru?
ENFEN maintains the official "El Niño Costero Alert." Experts expect further warming and see a high probability of an exceptionally strong event.
Which regions of Peru are particularly at risk?
In the event of heavy rainfall, Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque are particularly in focus. Impacts are also possible in other parts of the coast and in the northwestern highlands.
When are the heaviest rains expected?
The most critical phase is currently expected during the Peruvian summer. The months of January to March 2027, in particular, must be closely monitored.
Can one currently travel to northern Peru?
Yes. The current forecast is not a general reason to cancel trips to northern Peru. However, during the rainy season, travelers should pay attention to weather warnings, road conditions, and regional advisories.
Is it already certain that there will be severe floods?
No. The forecast describes an increased probability of an extraordinary El Niño event. Where and to what extent floods will result from this cannot currently be reliably predicted.
Sources
Comisión Multisectorial ENFEN – Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.º 15-2026, August 28, 2026.
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENAMHI).
Autoridad Nacional del Agua (ANA).
Agencia Peruana de Noticias Andina.
Image source Hero: Agencia Andina / SENAMHI – Sea surface temperature map off Peru, published in the article "El Niño entra en fase extraordinaria," September 3, 2026.
